I agree there are big differences between upscaled and HD; Especially true on larger screen sizes. J6P will put value on this, but not enough to slug through a format war. the format needs to migrate so that eventually all releasses are on HD and with $500 players enough may partake (if one format only);

Please don't misinterpret my predictions above with technical ability or Picture Quality; HD-DVD is spectacular and Mark proved it to me. I'm even supporting it with continuing disk purchases (along with BD);

When looking at chances of long term war-winning, those aren't the issues; especially if the other side has similar qualities. I look at who has more to gain/lose and from my seat it looks like more companies have more investment to lose with BD failing than with HD-DVD, hence the huge marketing and financial backing it gets. With all of the CE and studio investments in BD, I don't see that format going anywhere anytime soon; The question then remains, will HD-DVD hang in there? It might - 2 formats surviving... But will it consume BD? - just can't see it; Computer drives, PS3, etc.
Pioneer, Panasonic, etc;
Sony, Fox, Disney, etc. would all have to write-off millions in investment and be deemed a failure - just doesn't register with me...

I don't like Sony's behaviors any more than VK expresses; My goodness, anybody that behaves so badly, they make Msoft seem like the smitten underdog.., well... smile

But BD is not just Sony, and software is what sells a format; There just isn't a good way to make an argument without it sounding like support for one or the other adn I don't - just a cold analysis of playing field;

As an early adopter on this stuff, and with all the great BD releases coming this year, the only way to get full enjoyment is to get both and let the chips fall where they may; Unfortunately early adopters just have to deal with both formats right now;

I do think there is already a strong HD-DVD support culture; If you're thinking of buying into it, I wouldn't hesitate, as there will always be a market for it; Even today there are strong markets for Vinyl LPs - amazing!!...

To me they are just unemotional formats to provide enjoyment. I love the results from both, but I'm afraid they won't be around long unless we reduce to one - either one is fine with me; In a few years, I hope we'll all be downloading/streaming HD and bypass the whole mess...

ken