I think the king(s), in this case, are dead, or at least on life support.

As we have discussed in the past, I truly believe these formats do not offer the average consumer any compelling reason to upgrade.

I do not believe the average consumer actually has the display capability to see it, and if they did, they wouldn't have it set properly. Most flat panels that get sold in the mass market are not even close to 1080, closer to some form of 720, which is a nice resolution for a 40" screen or so.

But, you have to ensure that your player and cable/sat/ OTA are set properly. In my case, I have visited several friends and relatives homes and I find, without exception, the cable company has it wrong. In many cases, you have DVD players that have terrific output capabilities (HDMI even) and these are not being used- just the tried and true yellow, red and white cables.

And the cable companies often set the boxes to output 480i- I kid you not. And then the display has stretch modes enabled, even in some cases for HD content. My relatives were watching 480i and thinking it was HD for 6 months. They asked me what the big deal was. And now that I have it properly setup? They often wonder what the big deal is because many shows are upsampled. Though when I show them HD sports they do see it. But frankly, on films, while WE HERE do see it, I think many people do not.

I think this is an important point- since so much content we watch is based off film. Films in HD often do not look as sharp as we would expect because they are shot intentionally soft. While those of us that are sensitive to the abilities of HD will see much greater color depth, I think most people will look at it and wonder what the big deal is. I think this is a very critical point.

Again, ask why any consumer technology has succeeded and the reason is always "convenience". iPod? Check. CD? Check. DVD? Check.

Putting on my joe consumer hat for a moment, lets look at these next gen disc formats:
* gotta buy a new player?!
* What? There are 2 new formats? How many freaking formats do I have to keep up with? Now theres Nintendo, Sony, XBox, that mac thing my daughter keeps annoying me about..... GRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!
* cant play it in the minivan to quiet the kids? Cant put it on my iPod either? No portable players out for me? GRRRRRRRRR
* gotta buy the same movies AGAIN?! And maybe AGAIN after that (other format wins)!
* will the picture really look that much better? HD over cable really doesnt look THAT much better to get me to spend my money.

Id love for these new formats to succeed, but I do not think they will. DVD offered noticeably better image (VHS was junk) and no rewinding, easy to transport, etc. In short all the reasons CD put the LP in history's dust bin, those are the reasons for DVDs win. But just like how SACD and DVD-A could not beat the CD, neither can these new formats usurp DVD. Sad to say.

Its time to face reality, come and meet the King and Queen of the formats, the CD and DVD.

Disagree with the above? Then I shall point you to this, which I happened upon in the January 2007 edition of the Absolute Sound where they interview Mr. Bob Stuart on their Back Page:

Quote
Neil Gader asks:
What about the rollout of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray? Are they facing the same issues that sunk SACD and DVD-A?

Bob Stuart answers:
Absolutely, I think so. There are a lot of parallels. Fact is you can fget fantastic results out of standard DVD disc if you do the right video processing. The question is whether the consumer will pay more for the new disc and whether Blockbuster will stock three different versions of the new movie. I'm skeptical. Whilst I don't think the new formats will die necessarily, I do think they will have quite a struggle to attain a significant marketshare because the DVD catalog is already huge. The other factor that makes it even muddier is the movies-on-demand, downloads, local hard-disc storage rental. I think we're close to the end of the time that a disc format like DVD could be launched and you could expect it to be successful.
I have said it before, and I will say it again. I think the future will be some form of download service that is high res, and is distributable and portable. Distributable and portable are convenience factors which can sell a new format. Technical superiority has never won out because, its close to the bottom of the reasons for consumers to adopt a new format.

best regards,
Jerry

Best regards,
Jerry
Main System: 861v6, DSP8000s in corners, DSP7000s Center and Sides, 1-9 humans.