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Blu-Ray has an advantage as Joe Sixpack* is going to be buying playstations in droves.
I still think that could grossly backfire on Sony.

I'm just not sure the majority of gamers want anything more than a games console at the end of the day. They might be able to woo gamers with Bluray movie compatibility in the short term as they did with UMD movies on the PSP, but look how that's ended up. What's more, it's one thing to use a PS3 as a Trojan horse to get PS3s into as many homes as possible, it's another thing for the majority of those owners to actually then go out and buy movies for it when they're already faced with the burden of $60 price tags on the games alone. Given the majority will primarily – and rightly so – want a games console for its games, they'll likely put their hard earned pennies to buying games above and beyond anything else. Then comes the question of hoe many PS3 owners will even be hooking them up to an HDTV. It was alright for DVD in the PS2. Although its playback was abysmal, you could hook it up to any television.

It's still an unpredictable battle. I still think it unwise to underestimate Microsoft's power (along with Intel and HP) in backing HD DVD for PC use over Bluray. A $499 player really is very good too. With HD DVD launching this coming Tuesday in the states there are a good few on the AVS forum who have found stores selling the machines and launch titles this weekend already. It's exciting. Whether either format appeals to the average Joe remains to be seen. Logic might dictate that it won't, but it doesn't seem to be stopping either group marketing their formats as a mainstream product. In addition, I agree and would say the "DVD' brand name in HD DVD is potentially a huge, huge asset to the format in making it clear to consumers precisely what it is.

One other issue with the PS3 I think is going to be product availability. They're not just launching in Japan and America/Canada this November, but Europe and Australia/New Zealand too. Sony said they aim to launch with 1m units, followed by 1m more each month through to around March or April 07. For a global launch of something boasting the "playstation' brand that's just not going to stretch far at all. They could probably sell 1 million to Japan alone within its first three days of release, so come November people are likely to be crawling over their own grandmother to get one (and subsequently fling it on eBay for 10x the price). If we assume stock shortages will not simmer down until Spring of 07 at the earliest, HD DVD with it's $499 player – and perhaps a cheaper one by Christmas? – could have made enough headway to prolong its position in this whole feud. If we also assume the Xbox 360 will be readily available by this Christmas we must also wonder how Microsoft's planned external HD DVD drive add on might fare [although I am still curious how in the hell it will work as the 360 has no digital video output which would cause a problem if any titles flagged with ICT were played in a system that only had analogue video out].

Nothing's really set in stone. It's quite well known now that Bob Iger of Disney said in his recent speech to stock holders that although they full back Bluray they will “probably” release on HD DVD as well. I still feel Disney is by far Bluray's greatest asset, since as far as I am concerned Bluray offers no technological advance over HD DVD that should be of any concern to the consumer for pre-recorded media (not even the potential for an extra 20gb storage). I'd like to think HD DVD can succeed. I consider it more deserving of success – and not so much in a "routing for the little guy' type way. As a film fan though, one can only go where the content ends up, and I agree the possible scenario is both formats fail at which point we can only hang our heads further in shame at the inability of Hollywood and manufacturers to come together and produce a single format.

The DVD-A vs SACD analogy I think can only stretch so far in comparing the Hi Def movie formats however. People are at least more aware of hi-definition and its benefits than they ever were over lossless multi-channel audio and so forth. The fact HDTV is already part of public consciousness will probably ensure at least one format does win instead of the two of them fading into obscurity.


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What was also interesting was that Bob said he made sure that MLP was included as mandatory in both formats so that, which he expected and assumed would happen, the two formats would convergence into a single format (like original DVD).
But it's not mandatory in both. Bluray in fact has no mandate for any next gen audio formats to the best of my knowledge. No Dolby Digital Plus, not DTS HD, or Dolby True HD (MLP) whereas HD DVD boasts mandatory next gen audio format support for Dolby Digital Plus and a minimum of 2-channel Dolby True HD and the first players – despite them not having too – have 5.1 DTS HD support as well. I'd imagine 2nd gen players will expand their True HD decoding support to multi-channel. Warner's Phantom of the Opera which is out on Tuesday already boasts a 5.1 True HD track which I'd imagine is rather lovely. Sadly everything else, even the Universal titles, just offer DD+.